Monday, February 2, 2009

Go Ahead, Keep Doubting Penn State

Penn State's victory at Michigan State yesterday should silence some critics. Heck, their upset prevented me from remaining perfect in my picks (yet 9-1 still isn't half bad). But for those of you who still do not believe that Penn State isn't really this good, consider these factoids:

1. Penn State is poised to make their first NCAA Tournament since the Joe Crispin days (remember him?). If you recall, the Nittany Lions were last in the Big Dance in 2001, making it all the way to the Sweet 16 as 10 seed. And, while there is still nine games left in the conference, Penn State would have to collapse in a big way to miss the tournament.

2. Despite their relatively weak scheduling (SOS: 107; last in the Big Ten), Penn State has taken advantage (RPI: 66). They are 17-5 at this point, with only two of those losses coming at the hands of Atlantic 10 foes Rhode Island (by five) and at Temple (by six). The other three are in the Big Ten: Michigan State (by five), at Wisconsin (by four). Their only blemish is a 20-point loss at Minnesota. So one bad loss. They've been competive in every other game.

3. They sport the sure-fire Big Ten Player of the Year in sophomore guard Talor Battle (photo courtesy of The Daily Collegian). If you recall last week, I couldn't decide between him or Michigan's Manny Harris, but what Battle has done on the floor leading this Penn State team is simply amazing. On the season, he is averaging 19 ppg to go along with 5.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists. I dare you to find a player in the Big Ten that means more to his team than Battle does to Penn State. Take him out of the equation, they are a sub-.500 team.

4. Take a quick glance at their remaining schedule. It will test the Nittany Lions, but it's not exactly cake, either:

HOME: Wisconsin (Feb. 8), Minnesota (Feb. 14), Indiana (Feb. 28), Illinois (March 4)

AWAY: Michigan (Feb. 5), Purdue (Feb. 11), Illinois (Feb. 18), Ohio State (Feb. 24), Iowa (March 7)

Figure they win 4 or 5 of those 9 remaining games. They will finish with a clip of 22-9/21-10 (11/7 or 10/8 in the Big Ten). To leave Penn State out of the Tournament with that record would be a huge mistake given what they have been able to accomplish. ESPN's Joe Lunardi (Bracketologist) has Penn State as an 11-seed. Would you want to play them in the first round?

And let's not forget that the conference as a whole has made HUGE strides over last season. Last year, only four teams got into the tournament. This year, it could be six or seven that get in. Has any other conference in the nation improved as much as the Big Ten has? Sure, it's taken its licks over the last couple of years, but from top-to-bottom and aside from the Big East, the Big Ten might be the second-best conference in the country. Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, the aforementioned Penn State and even Northwestern already have or on pace to crack last year's win totals. Heck, even Iowa needs one more to tie last year's mark. And the best news? It might only get better.

Every team in the conference sports a freshman or sophomore as their "leader". Here's some quick hitters:

Illinois: Mike Davis (so.), Mike Tisdale (so.), Demetri McCamey (so.)
Indiana: Tom Pritchard (so.)
Iowa: Jake Kelly (so.), Matt Gatens (fr.), Jeff Peterson (so.)
Michigan: Manny Harris (so.), Zack Novak (fr.)
Michigan State: Kalin Lucas (so.), Delvon Roe (fr.), Durrell Summers (so.)
Minnesota: Colton Iverson (fr.), Al Nolen (so.)
Northwestern: Michael Thompson (so.)
Ohio State: Evan Turner (so.), William Buford (fr.), B.J. Mullens (fr.), Jon Diebler (so.)
Penn State: Talor Battle (so.)
Purdue: E'Twaun Moore (so.), Robbie Hummel (so.), JaJuan Johnson (so.)
Wisconsin: Jon Leuer (fr.)

The bottom line is that the conference is in good hands. It's only going to get better. Now, quickly, here are my picks for the first half of the week (picks are bolded):

Purdue at Ohio State (Tuesday, 6 p.m., ESPN) -- Evan Turner going against Robbie Hummel should be a great match-up.
Iowa at Indiana (Wednesday, 5:30 p.m., BTN) -- Indiana grabs their first conference win under Tom Crean against a struggling Iowa team in search for a win of their own.
Chicago State at Northwestern (Wednesday, 7 p.m., BTN.com) -- Northwestern takes a brief break from conference play. Should have its way with Chicago State.
Minnesota at Michigan State (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m., BTN) -- Tom Izzo won't allow Michigan State to lose three straight home games. They'll take care of business.
Penn State at Michigan (Thursday, 6 p.m., BTN) -- Penn State doesn't have a defensive match-up for Manny Harris.
Illinois at Wisconsin (Thursday, 8 p.m., ESPN) -- Wisconsin snaps its six-game skid at home. Illinois has not looked pretty the past few outings.

Season Mark: 9-1

1 comment:

  1. Jim Burr is a joke. Northwestern is not going to the tournament. Penn State will.

    Good stuff, Brad.

    ReplyDelete