2010 Preview: Minnesota

Glory days have returned to Minnesota basketball, at least from where I'm sitting. Gone are the Dan Monson days of mediocrity. After luring Tubby Smith to the Twin Cities two years ago, Minnesota has a decent crop of talent and the biggest bench in the conference.

Key Returnees: F Damian Johnson, G Lawrence Westbrook, G Al Nolen

Key Departures: None

Recruits: F Royce White (Hopkins, MN), G/F Rodney Williams (New Hope, MN), G Justin Cobbs (Torrance, CA), G Bryant Allen (Maplewood, MO), F Trevor Mbakwe (Miami, FL)

Need: Star Player

2010 Outlook: With Minnesota, what you see is what you get, at least in Smith's first two seasons. Looking at their roster, there isn't one guy that can change a game on the offensive end. Each player is complimentary to the next. Some shoot threes, some distribute, some rebound, but there isn't one guy that can do all of those things consistently. At least not yet. Defensively, though, Minnesota was one of the best teams in the nation. Damian Johnson didn't get enough credit for his defense, dispite the fact he was shot-altering machine. And anybody who follows Big Ten basetkball knows what Al Nolen can do on the defensive end. Don't expect that defensive tenacity to go away.

Incoming freshman Royce White can do those things offensively for the Golden Gophers. He's got about as much hype as any freshmen in Minnesota history and he hasn't even played a minute in the Maroon & Gold. The 6'7", 210 lb. small forward is ranked as No. 19 on Rivals.Com's Top 150 for 2009 (second-best small forward) and was a McDonald's All-American. Expect him to log major minutes next season and be the pre-season front runner for Big Ten Freshman of the Year. The kid's got game.

His fellow incoming freshmen aren't too shabby, either. Rodney Williams is a good complimentary swingman who has good size for the off-guard position (6'5", 185). They've got two good point guards in Justin Cobbs and Bryant Allen, and power forward Trevor Mbakwe has been drawing rave reviews for his physical low-post style. Don't forget this Minnesota team really didn't even lose much. Backup center Jonathan Williams was the only departing senior, while both Travis Busch and Kevin Payton decided to get forgo their senior seasons and graduate. A sure-fire Top 25 recruiting class for Smith. The rich get richer, as they say.

Minnesota's emergence as a contender likely depends on the development of big men Ralph Sampson III and Colton Iverson. They looked lost at times as freshmen, but Gopher fans are hoping they can improve as much from year one to year two as Illinois' similar tandem of Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale. They've got the size, and that's something you need in the Big Ten.

I think of any team in the Big Ten, Minnesota has all the right pieces. They've got the coach who has been to the promise land before (Smith), a good mix of youth (White, Williams) and experience (Johnson, Westbrook), a deep bench (Blake Hoffarber, Devoe Joseph, Paul Carter, Devron Bostick) a tenacious defense and an unselfish offense. They have the versatility to go big or small, fast or slow. I said this earlier this month, but do not be surprised to see Minnesota in the Sweet 16 come March. If everything falls together, the 2010 season can be a special one.

Photo: ESPN.Com

Next: Ohio State

2010 Preview: Illinois

Like Michigan, Illinois surprised many people with their quick rebound this year, proving that the utter disappointment called the 2007 season was just a fluke. Loaded with a trio of talented juniors-to-be and solid back-to-back recruiting classes this year and next, Illinois looks to stay at the top half of the Big Ten, a place they've grown accustomed to this decade.


Key Returnees: C Mike Tisdale, F Mike Davis, G Demetri McCamey
Key Departures: G Chester Frazier, G Trent Meacham, G/F Calvin Brock
Recruits: G D.J. Richardson (Henderson, NV), G Brandon Paul (Gurnee, IL), F Tyler Griffey (Ballwin, MO), G Joseph Bertrand (Sterling, IL)
Need: Point guard
2010 Outlook: From the looks of things, Illinois has the most balanced starting lineup in the league and that's just based on the guys they have coming back. There is no more talented frontcourt duo than Tisdale an Davis and the scary fact is these kids were only sophomores last year. If you're another Big Ten team, who do you guard? Do you double Tisdale and leave Davis open? They both can extend out to the three-point line and knock down shots but it's really a pick your poison situation. They'll both find ways to beat you. Granted they hit a bit of a wall in March, but that should pay them dividends next year.

Illinois will go as far as those three take them. McCamey has shown on more than one occasion that he is capable of taking a game over on the offensive end, but he needs to be more consistent on the defensive side. He's got the ability to play both guard positions, and with Illinois in need of a true point guard after Chester Frazier's graduation, head coach Bruce Weber might hand the reins over Jeff Jordan (right). I really liked what I saw of this guy last year. He's a tenacious, ball-hawking defender with speed and good passing ability. You won't get much offense out of him, but if you're looking for a smart player who can disseminate the ball and run an offense, which I believe Weber wants, it's Jordan's job to lose.

Of course, some incoming freshmen will push him for playing time. Weber is bringing in three shooting-guard prospects, with Paul probably being the most capable of playing the point. It's interesting; both Paul, Richardson and Bertrand committed to Illinois in October 2007 as juniors, hinting to me that the three of them have great chemistry together. Richardson was in Peoria, IL, at the time of his committment and getting three of the top in-state players for 2009 is huge for Weber, perhaps finally putting to rest questions of his inability to keep top talent inside the state of Illinois (see: John Scheyer, Julian Wright, Jerel McNeal, Sherron Collins, Bobby Frasor, Evan Turner, Shaun Livingston). And if you think this recruiting class is good, head over to Rivals.Com and check out Illinois' class for 2010.

The wildcard here is Alex Legion. The former four-star prospect and Kentucky transfer has the athletic gifts to play in the Big Ten and the game to go with it. However, the general consensus among Illinois fans last year is that Legion seemed disinterested in playing, saying that he didn't have a lot of heart. Maybe that explains why Legion was exlusively a bench player last year, getting minimal minutes on a team that he should probably be starting for. If he can jump into the starting lineup at the small forward position next year, it's just another weapon for the Fighting Illini.

Next Up: Minnesota

(photo from SI.com)

2010 Preview: Michigan

No team improved more in one year than Michigan did in John Beilein's second year. After winning only 10 games in 2007, the Wolverines won 22 this year, making the NCAA Tournament for the first time in over a decade. Now, with stars Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims returning to Ann Arbor next year, the Wolverines will only get stronger.

Key Returnees: G Manny Harris, F DeShawn Sims, G Stu Douglass, G/F Zack Novak
Key Departures: G C.J. Lee
Recruits: G Darius Morris (Los Angeles, CA), F Blake McLimans (Worcester, MA), F Jordan Morgan (Detroit, MI), G Matt Vogrich (Lake Forest, IL)
Biggest Need: Point guard
2010 Outlook: Michigan will go as high in 2010 as Sims and Harris take them. They were the most dangerous offensive tandem in the Big Ten and flirted with the possibility of going to the NBA. Harris was a do-it-all kind of player for Beilein; statistically, he was top ten in points-per-game, rebounds-per-game and assists-per game. And Sims was as durable as a power forward as there was in the league.


This Michigan team is guard-oriented and guard-heavy. Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, Laval Lucas-Perry, Jevohn Shepherd and Anthony Wright were capable role-players last year, with somebody different every night becoming the third offensive option. Novak and Douglass were fixtures in the starting lineup last year as freshmen and big things are expected from them next season. Incoming freshman Matt Vogrich was one of the best shooters in the state of Illinois last season and should be next in line for playing time after Novak and Douglass.

But Michigan is lacking a true point guard to run things. Harris and Douglass occassionally ran the show last year, but they are more suited in the off-guard position. C.J. Lee started at point guard down the stretch, but with his graduation and the departures of David Merrit and Kelvin Grady leave Michigan without a point guard. Perhaps Beilein is banking on incoming freshman Darius Morris (#77 on Rivals.com's Top 150 for 2009) to come in and assume that role. He's an explosive guard, averaging 26 ppg at the high school level and can create for himself and his teammates.

Michigan virtually has all the pieces coming back next year to make another run at the NCAA Tournament. If Sims and Harris can stay healthy, expect to see Michigan in contention for an at-large spot next March. This is still a young team, but Beilein has them on the right track.

Next Up: Illinois

Michigan's Sims, Harris To Return

Michigan head coach John Beilein has announced that stars Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims will return to Ann Arbor next season. Losing them would have been a big loss to the Wolverines, but with their return, Michigan shouldn't skip a beat.

"In order to address the speculation around DeShawn and Manny's future we are announcing that both these young men have decided to continue their respective educational paths here at the University of Michigan," said Beilein. "Since the completion of our season we have gathered enough information for everyone to feel good about this decision. I am anxious to see their continued growth and I am excited to coach these two, as well as the rest of the team next season."

Link

2010 Preview: Wisconsin

Wisconsin continues to amaze. Their slow pace and rugged defense earned them another trip to the NCAA Tournament this year, despite a mid-season six-game losing streak. They managed to pull off an upset of the fifth-seeded Florida State Seminoles thanks to a game-winning layup overtime layup by Trevon Hughes (In case you were asleep or missed it, thank God for YouTube).


Key Returnees: G Trevon Hughes, G Jason Bohannon, F Jon Leuer
Key Departures: F Joe Krabbenhoft, F Marcus Landry
Recruits: F Mike Bruesewitz (Mendota Heights, MN), G Diamond Taylor (Bolingbrook, IL)
Need: Small Forward
2010 Outlook: There's good news and bad news for Wisconsin fans. The bad news is that you have to replace pieces in the frontcourt. The good news is two-fold: a.) Bo Ryan has stockpiled size, and b) the backcourt returns. We'll get to that in a minute.


Replacing Krabbenhoft's toughness and Landry's leadership will be difficult. For his four-year career, Krabbenhoft was the glue that kept the Badgers together, always diving for loose balls and doing the little things to help his team win. Landry was arguably their most polished offensive player and could go outside or in. Couple their departures with the losses of Brian Butch and Greg Stiemsma from a year ago and you'll find that Wisconsin has to replace the starting power forward and center in consecutive seasons. But as I mentioned earlier, there are replacements in the wings.


Jon Leuer is a good place to start. While maybe not capable to be a true low-post presence, Leuer's size at 6'10" and unusual quickness makes him a defensive mismatch for any team. His stats may not have shown in this past year, but he has a breakout year and will very much be a part of the mix next year. Keaton Nankivil (6'8", 240) got some experience last year and should also be in the mix for some playing time. And don't forget massive centers Ian Markolf (7'0", 270) and Jered Berggren (6'10", 235) who didn't even play this past season. In terms of replacing Krabbenhoft, junior-to-be Tim Jarmusz looks capable of assuming that do-everything role, as does incoming freshman Mike Bruesewitz.



Wisconsin should be strong in the backcourt, with starting guards Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon both returning for their senior seasons. A forgotten name amidst the guards is Jordan Taylor, who is prime for a breakout season next year as a sophomore. Taylor has got a Big Ten-ready body and the game to go with it. He may not start next year, but you best believe he'll play often. He won't be the only "Taylor" on the team next year, as incoming freshman Diamond Taylor (no relation) will push for playing time.


Wisconsin has the necessary pieces to make it back to another NCAA Tournament, but the emergence and development of their bigs will play a big factor in that. The steadiness and continuity of the guards are a good place to start for any team looking to dance into March and if we know Bo Ryan, that's where Wisconsin will be.

Next Up: Michigan

2009/10 Big Ten-ACC Challenge Announced

The slate of games for next year's Big Ten/ACC Challenge was announced Wednesday. All games will be televised on the ESPN family of networks.

Monday, Nov. 30
Penn State at Virginia

Tuesday, Dec. 1
Maryland at Indiana
Michigan State at North Carolina
Northwestern at North Carolina State
Virginia Tech at Iowa
Wake Forest at Purdue

Wednesday, Dec. 2
Boston College at Michigan
Duke at Wisconsin
Florida State at Ohio State
Illinois at Clemson
Minnesota at Miami (FL)

My thoughts: The Big Ten has never won this challenge, but I think their draws are favorable. A Michigan State/North Carolina re-match will be the Challenge's marquee match-up and will be a chance for Michigan State to extract a little revenge after losing to the Tar Heels in the national championship game earlier this month.

2010 Preview: Penn State

Penn State surprised many by finishing as high as they did in the Big Ten last year. Thanks to inspired play by Jamelle Cornley and Talor Battle, the Nittany Lions just barely missed out on an NCAA Tournament berth. Despite being one of the last couple teams left out, Penn State used their passion and fire to sweep through the NIT, defeating George Mason, Rhode Island, Florida, Notre Dame and Baylor to give the conference two NIT championships in the last two years (Ohio State won it last year).

What should we expect from Penn State next year?

Key Returnees: G Talor Battle, F Andrew Jones, F Jeff Brooks

Key Departures: F Jamelle Cornley, G Stanley Pringle, G Danny Morrissey

Recruits: G Tim Frazier (Houston, TX), G Jermaine Marshall (Lewsiberry, PA), F Sasa Borovnjak (Fletcher, NC)

Biggest Need: Off-guard

2010 Outlook: Of all the conference's teams, you could argue Penn State loses the most. Jamelle Cornley was the heart and soul of that team and putting Battle's ridiculous late-game heroics aside, Cornley would simply let passion and put the Nittany Lions on his back, refusing to lose. Penn State needs to find a way to replace that because it made them so successful last year. The losses of Battle's backcourt mates also hurts, as Penn State needs to replace Morrissey's three-point shooting and Pringle's all-around solid play.

Battle proved to be one of the conference's best players last year and was a first team all-Big Ten selection. Love him or hate him, Battle wanted the ball in his hands with the game on the line and delivered on more than one occassion. He's got everything you like in a point guard: he's aggressive, he can create his own shot or distribute to others, he can handle the ball and he's a pesky defender. He'll be one of the conference's elite players next year and even has a cadre of his own fans.

The one thing Penn State has an abundance in is power forwards. Brooks, Jones and David "D.J." Jackson are all in the same mold, though none is really better than the other. If anything, they were complimentary role players last year, taking a back seat to Cornely, Battle and Pringle on the offensive side. Next year, Penn State's chances likely lie on their shoulders. Look for them to take much bigger roles.

Coach Ed DeChellis came into this last season on the hot seat. The majority of his seasons in Happy Valley were underachieveing, but it will be interesting to see how he responds after having a successful season. It's uncharted territory for him and his team, but it's a place he'll gladly take. All signs point to Penn State not regressing. While they may not be as talented as last year's team, they certaintly are going to be a team that "Battles" with everybody.

What Could Have Been? Ohio State

For the sake of argumentation, let's have a little bit of fun real quick.

Take this year's Ohio State team. They made the NCAA Tournament as a nine seed before losing to Siena in overtime in Dayton last month. They already had a pretty young team, but if not for five early defections to the NBA in the past three seasons (including big man B.J. Mullens, who has already declared), the Buckeyes could have had a loaded team this year. Take a look:

PG -- Mike Conley Jr. (now with the NBA's Memphis Grizzlies)
SG -- Daequan Cook (now with the NBA's Miami Heat)
SF -- Evan Turner (first team all-Big Ten selection this year)
PF -- Kosta Koufos (now with the the NBA's Utah Jazz)
C -- Greg Oden (now with the NBA's Portland Trailblazers)

The bench? Not too shabby, either. Think of Mullens, David Lighty, Jon Diebler, William Buford and Dallas Lauderdale. That's a team that can go ten-deep. Is there any doubter out there that thinks that team would not have been a legit Final Four contender?

In wake of their departures, Matta continues to reload and win. He has turned Ohio State into a launching board towards the pros, which is attracting top recruits to Columbus. Now, all he has to do is convince them to stay. If he can do that, Ohio State has a shot at winning a national championship.

To further illustrate my point, take a look at the list below. Matta has always been a fantastic recruiter, but take a quick look at his 2010 recruiting class list. NOTE: Due to no graduating scholarship seniors, Ohio State has no signees for 2009, though Mullens' departure opens one spot up.

-- Jordan Sibert, a 6'4" shooting guard from Cincinnati, OH (five-star; ranked #18 on Rivals.com's 2010 Top 150)
-- Lenzelle Smith, Jr., a 6'3" shooting guard from Zion, IL (four-star; ranked #97 on Rivals.com's 2010 Top 150)
-- Jared Sullinger, a 6'8" power forward from Columbus, OH (five-star; ranked #3 on Rivals.com's 2010 Top 150)
-- DeShaun Thomas, a 6'6" power forward from Fort Wayne, IN (five-star; ranked #8 on Rivals.com's 2010 Top 150)
-- Cameron Wright, a 6'5" shooting guard from Cleveland, OH

They're also in the running for five-star prospects Adreian Payne (Dayton, OH) and Dominique Ferguson (Indianapolis, IN). Matta is going for it all and succeeding.

Think their future is in good hands?

2010 Preview: Indiana

Year one under Tom Crean was about as everyone expected. With virtually nobody returning from the Kelvin Sampson era, Crean was left with a bare cupboard and won just six games in his first year. What's to expect in his second year?

Key Returnees: F Tom Pritchard, G Devan Dumes, G Verdell Jones III

Key Departures: None

Recruits: F Christian Watford (Birmingham, AL), F Bobby Capobianco (Loveland, OH), G Maurice Creek (Chatham, VA), F Derek Elston (Tipton, IN), G Jordan Hulls (Bloomington, IN), C Bawa Muniru (Durham, NC)

Biggest Need: Balance, depth, athleticism

2010 Outlook: Next year's prognosis might not be that much better, though Hoosier fans can certainly anticipate more than six wins at the end of the season. The team will still be very young, but with an athletic, star-studded recruiting class coming in, Crean will finally have some pieces to work with.

How the six incoming freshmen play is going to be a major storyline for Indiana. Bloomington native Jordan Hulls (#107 on Rivals.Com's 2009 Top 150) was named Indiana's Mr. Basketball this past season and is a smart point guard that can run a team. Crean also has two great wing players coming in, with 6'8" small forward Christian Watford (#41) and 6'5" shooting guard Maurice Creek (#56). With their offensive ability and athleticism, Watford and Creek should be Crean's go-to-guys for the next four years. Forwards Derek Elston (#103) and Bobby Capobianco provide good depth in the front court, while Bawa Muniru (#112) is a physically-imposing center that is still developing.

Aside from those coming in, Indiana has some decent pieces returning. Devan Dumes, a senior next year, will likely return to his spot in the starting lineup. Verdell Jones III is a strong, tall point guard who can do a little bit of everything and Matt Roth, the sharpshooting guard who can fill it up from beyond the arc. Don't forget guard Jeremiah Rivers, who sat out last year after transferring from Georgetown. Expect him to get some minutes, but don't be surprised to see him start.

It won't take Indiana long to return to the top of the conference. While Indiana might not make the NCAA Tournament, a trip to the NIT wouldn't be impossible. They're going to have more depth next year, which should pay them immediate dividends. Those players returning who were coached by Crean last year know what is expected of them, and when that is combined with the influx of youth coming in, Indiana could be a scary team that nobody in the Big Ten wants to face.

Next Up: Penn State

UPDATE: Well, you can scratch Nick Williams off the Hoosiers' roster next year. The freshman has decided to transfer at the end of the semester, according to the Big Ten Network.

2010 Preview: Northwestern

After taking a look at the Iowa yesterday, let's go to the Chicago area to preview next year's Northwestern Wildcats.

Key Returnees: F Kevin Coble, F John Shurna, G Michael Thompson

Key Departures: G Craig Moore

Recruits: G Drew Crawford (Naperville, IL), G Alex Marcotullio (Warren, MI)

Biggest Need: Center

2010 Outlook: To many, Northwestern probably exceeded expectations last year, going 17-14 and making the NIT. Remember, this same group went 1-17 in the Big Ten the previous year. But this year, they were very competitive in nearly every conference game and even managed to go to East Lansing and beat Michigan State on their home floor.

The question for Northwestern next year will be if they can maintain their success. They've got necessary pieces back to do it, including second team all-Big Ten selection Kevin Coble (left). He was the Wildcats' leading scorer at 15.5 ppg and expect that number to stay the same or even rise next year. Coble's versatility at the forward spot causes mismatch problems for many teams, due to his ability to play inside and out. Also returning are sophomore point guard Michael "Juice" Thompson and Coble-like forward John Shurna. Thompson was a spark for the Wildcat offense and proved himself capable of running Bill Carmody's team.

The knock on Northwestern has always been their lack of a big man; however, they seem to have found one in massive freshman Kyle Rowley (7'0", 280 lbs.). Though still very new to basketball, Rowley is a project-type center that not many teams in the Big Ten can match up with. He only averaged 13 minutes per game this year, but with one full season under his belt, expect him to make huge strides next season and be the immovable object in the paint.

The departure of sharpshooter Craig Moore certainly hurts Northwestern. When the Wildcats needed a big three, Moore was the go-to guy. However, Northwestern fans feel they have a capable replacement in the wings in freshman guard Drew Crawford of Naperville, who is drawing early comparisons to Moore. Don't be surprised to see him in the starting lineup next year.

Next Up: Indiana Hoosiers

2010 Preview: Iowa

After this week's bold predictions, let's delve a little deeper into what the conference could look like next year. The next couple of weeks, I'll count down how I think the conference will turn out in 2010, and we'll start with the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Key Returnees: G/F Matt Gatens, G Devan Bawinkel, G Anthony Tucker, F Jarryd Cole
Key Departures: G Jake Kelly, G Jeff Peterson, F Cyrus Tate
Recruits: G/F Eric May (Dubuque, IA), F/C Brennan Cougill (Sioux City, IA), G Cully Payne (Schaumburg, IL), JUCO F Devon Archie (Vincennes, IN)
Biggest Need: Point guard
2010 Outlook: The Hawkeyes have had a roller coaster-like ride in Todd Lickliter's two seasons at the helm, in which they've gone 28-36. They've shown flashes of improvement (and even brilliance) at times, but it's obvious that his system is still being implemented.

Despite the offseason departures of four players, including starters Jake Kelly and Jeff Peterson, Iowa has a pretty good core intact. Matt Gatens had a phenomenal freshman season and will likely be the go-to guy next year. Devan Bawinkel proved to be one of the conference's best three-point threats, as did his teammate, freshman Anthony Tucker, when he was on the floor.

However, Iowa needs to find a point guard to disseminate the offense. Kelly was annoited the point guard of the future after filling in for Peterson late this season, but with both of them gone, a gaping hole was left with no virtual replacement. Hawkeye fans think they've found the answer in Cully Payne, a one-time DePaul and Alabama commitment, but more depth is needed. The only true point guard on the team is walk-on John Lickliter, and he has no collegiate experience after redshirting last year. Every team needs a heady point guard to be successful, but for this system, it's essential. Right now, point guard is a big question mark heading into the offseason.

Iowa will also need to develop some size. The Hawkeyes were out-rebounded and out-muscled too many times last season, especially in Big Ten games because they simply did not have enough size. Jarryd Cole is a tank down low, but his size (6'6") limits his effectiveness. One player to watch here is sophomore-to-be Aaron Fuller (right), who many believe is poised to have a breakout season. He's a tweener-type forward at 6'6", but he can step out and shoot or take it in off the dribble. With one season to work with under his belt, expect Fuller to have a much bigger role in 2010.

A Few Notes

Few notes from around the league today...

-- As expected, the Michigan duo of Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims will meet with head coach John Beilein this week to discuss their potential draft status, writes Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press. They have until April 26 to declare. Sims said that he are Harris will make the decision together, meaning they will both return or both leave early.

-- A quick update on Illinois commitment Tyler Griffey.

-- A nice AP story on former Ohio State center Greg Oden, as he prepares for his first run in the playoffs with the Portland Trailblazers.

-- Well, not everyone is returning to Minnesota next year. With a big recruiting haul coming in, Kevin Payton and Travis Busch will not return to the team next season. Elsewhere, Myron Medcalf gives an update on Golden Gopher basketball, including his thoughts on recruits Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe.

-- And finally, Wisconsin head man Bo Ryan was named Head Coach for the United States at the World University games this summer in Belgrade, Serbia. He was an assistant twice before, in 1993 and 1995.

Big Ten (Eleven) Bold Predictions

It's never too early for predictions. But if there's one thing Big Ten fans know is that the Big Ten is extremely difficult to predict. As I posted last week, you don't know who is going to stay or go, schedules aren't released and injuries are (for the most part) unpredictable.

Yet, here's my lame attempt to try and predict what Big Ten fans will be talking about in just a short 11 months, sorted out by team.

Illinois: Jeff Jordan will start at point guard next year. He may be limited offensively, but he's a tenacious defender and can run the team. If he's anything like his father, Illinois has found a real steal here.

Indiana: The Hoosiers will make the NIT. Asking them to make the NCAA Tournament in just Crean's second year may be a stretch, but an NIT is feasible. Indiana will be clearly upgraded next year with a talented recruiting class. A bump in the road is still possible, but seeing Indiana on the schedule next year won't automatically mean a "W".

Iowa: Anthony Tucker will return to the starting lineup. This isn't a given, of course, considering Tucker's string of off-the-court incidents this past season, but with four players leaving this off-season, Tucker looks in good shape to regain his starting spot.

Michigan: Manny Harris will be the Big Ten's Player of the Year next year, if he stays. Of course, that's the big question. Harris has proven that he's one of the Big Ten's most dynamic players, finishing in top-five in points, rebounds and assists per game.

Michigan State: Delvon Roe will be a monster. He was battling knee injuries and a case of the freshman wall. He definitely showed signs of progress and he's got a permanent spot in the lineup with Goran Suton gone due to graduation. He'll grow into the perfect low-post supplement to Kalin Lucas in the frontcourt.

Minnesota: Tubby Smith will lead the Golden Gophers to the Sweet 16; Royce White will be the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year. Probably the gutsiest prediction of them all, but there's no reason to think they can't do it. They've got all the main pieces back and when you add that Top 25 recruiting class, complete with five-star forward Royce White, the Golden Gophers have some star power and even more depth than last year.

Northwestern: Drew Crawford will be the second coming of Craig Moore. With Moore gone, freshman Drew Crawford (Naperville, Ill.) will have some big shoes to fill at the two spot. He's more than capable, though. While he may not have Moore's unbelievable range, he's got size (6'5", 185). Look for him to make a splash in the Princeton 'O.

Ohio State: Thad Matta will win 20 games... again. He's done it every year in his three head coaching stops (Butler, Xavier, Ohio State) and there's no reason to think he won't do it again. Ohio State's backcourt is loaded and should be their primary strength. They can throw P.J. Hill, William Buford, Jon Diebler, Evan Turner and the healthy David Lighty at any team.

Penn State: Penn State will fall back down to Earth. They'll get Talor Battle back, but they simply lose too much. Replacing Jamelle Cornley, the heart and soul, as well as Battle's backcourt mates Stanley Pringle and Danny Morrissey, will prove to be too much.

Purdue: Purdue will win the Big Ten next year. All the major pieces are slated to come back, and they'll only get better. The bench might be a problem, but they'll have the best starting five in the conference.

Wisconsin: Jon Leuer will have a breakout season. He was juggled between the starting lineup and the bench last year, but expect big things from Leuer next season. His size alone (6'10") presents mismatch problems for every team in the conference and he's not even a center. In a permanent starting role, look for Leuer to wreak havoc on defenses.

What are your bold predictions?

A Quick Diversion: The Strike of '94

As this blog is for a sports writing class, I've been instructed to write about a topic from baseball's dark ages: the lockout of 1994. We'll get back to basketball later.



It's rare when owners, general managers, players and agents are all on the same page. Such is the case during the 1994 MLB lockout. Little could have been done to prevent this.

Everybody was in the market for something different. The owners were divided between big-market teams (New York, Chicago, Boston) who were against a salary cap and small-market (Kansas City, Minneapolis, San Diego) who wanted one. "Even out the odds," the little guys said. "Give us a chance to land a big fish." The players wanted financial security and freedom.

The big fish, at the time, were the Cecil Fielders, the Barry Bondses, and the Nolan Ryans. But the strike ended up being a part of the owners' own greed. As John Helyar, author of Lords of the Realm, writes: "Still, in some large part, it was the owners' own damned fault... Baseball owners, obsessed with denouncing the overpaid players, never did that. As agent Scott Boras once put it, 'If the players were a can of Campbell's soup, the owners would roll it down the aisle, step on it, kick it, call it overrated and overpriced, and then stick it on a shelf and try to sell it.'"

It also didn't help that baseball didn't have a strong leader. Commissioner Fay Vincent was widely unpopular with owners and his three-year reign did little to solve baseball's vast array of problems: revenue-sharing, salary cap, expansion. With Vincent gone and no suitable replacement in tow (though Bug Selig would eventually take over), those charged with running baseball became those with the most power: the owners.

Nobody wanted a work stoppage; not the owners, not the players and certainly not the fans. Some viewed it as just another bump in the road. Others turned the game off entirely. The strike was especially heartbreaking for fans of the former Montreal Expos, who had the best record in baseball at the time of the strike and seemed poised to be legitimate World Series contenders.

Boy, what bad luck for them. The only other time the Expos made the postseason? 1981, the last time a major strike struck baseball. They haven't really been close since.

15 years later, even in a weakend economy, teams still spend with more aggression than before. Take this year's New York Yankees, who spent over $300 million on three players (pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett and first baseman Mark Teixiera). Imagine, for a moment, if that money was being shelled out back then? Baseball would be in an uproar. If the work stoppage hadn't occured in '94, it most certainly would have happened by now.

For some, the strike of '94 ruined baseball, but in retrospect, it changed the game forever. Denver (Colorado Rockies) and Miami (Florida Marlins) were awarded with franchises shortly before the strike became official and Phoenix (Arizona Diamondbacks) and Tampa Bay (Devil Rays) got theirs in 1998, just three years after the strike ended. Some teams were reassigned (Milwaukee from AL Central to NL Central; Detroit from AL East to AL Central) and a new collective bargaining agreement gave the players and owners both financial flexibility and options.

In the end, the strike came down to one thing: money. Neither the owners nor the players could adequately agree on finances, thus resulting in the the '94 season to be shortened. Did the owners get too greedy? Maybe. Were they wrong? Maybe.

The strike-shortened season of '94 meant there would be no October baseball. There would be no World Series. Essentially, it was one giant arm-wrestling contest between the owners and the players.

Neither side won. Baseball, as a whole, lost.

Should I Stay Or Should I Go?

That's what some of the Big Ten's best players are asking themselves right now. They have until April 26 to declare for the draft, but can withdraw until they officially hire an agent. So what are the chances some of these guys go?

B.J. Mullens (Ohio State)
ESPN's Chad Ford says Mullens is going to declare for the draft because of financial hardships. He came off the bench this year and won the Big Ten's Sixth Man of the Year award. He's got tremendous size and potential.
Chances: 100%.

Evan Turner (Ohio State)
Turner had a breakout season this year for the Buckeyes and looks to be a tweener guard/forward in the NBA with his 6'6", 225 lb. frame. He's got to develop a jump shot, but he said he will return for his junior season next year. He's got the potential to be an All-American candidate. There's still potential for Turner to participate in pre-draft workouts that could change his mind.
Chances: 10%.

DeShawn Sims (Michigan)
After Michigan's loss to Oklahoma two weeks ago, Sims told reporters he would return for his senior season. But head coach John Beilein isn't so sure anymore and didn't give a definitive answer on the radio last week. Sims had a breakout season as well and looks like a good all-around player, but he could use one more season to really solidify himself in the eyes of draft scouts. Ford says he's 50-50 right now, but after Beilein's comments were published, it might be smart to increase those odds.
Chances: 55-60%.

Manny Harris (Michigan)
Harris probably has a better draft status than Sims and has filled up the stat sheet in each of his first two seasons as a Wolverine. He's a complete player but could bulk up a little bit.
Chances: 33%.

JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)
Johnson said he's coming back for his junior season after having a breakout season as a sophomore. He was named first team all-Big Ten this year.
Chances: 0%.

E'Twaun Moore (Purdue)
As I mentioned earlier this week, there's been rumors floating around that Moore is going to pull a European vacation (a la Brandon Jennings) to play professionally overseas. Personally, I think that would be a mistake for Moore and I see him coming back next year.
Chances: 5%.

Kalin Lucas (Michigan State)
The Big Ten Player of the Year earned his award this NCAA Tournament with a brilliant tournament. He's got great speed and court savvy, which are probably his biggest strengths, but he needs to further develop his jumpshot. There hasn't been much talk around Lucas, so all signs point to him coming back to East Lansing next year.
Chances: 5%.

Talor Battle (Penn State)
Battle proved that he can take a game over all by his lonesome this year, putting the Nittany Lions on his back multiple times this year. Pro scouts are still undecided about his potential in the NBA, but his stock can only go up if he stays and progresses another season in Happy Valley.
Chances: 5%.

An Illustration Of Improvement

As I mentioned last night, no confernece has done more for their national reputation than the Big Ten. People will look at their struggles in football and slow pace in basketball as a measuring stick for how well they do, but it isn't very fair in my mind. Check this out:

This is a list of every team with their record last year compared to this year. It shows how much the conference has improved, from top to bottom:

Illinois
2008 Record: 16-19
2009 Record: 24-10
Synopsis: After a horrible 2008 season, the Fighting Illini bounced back in a big way this season, returning to the NCAA Tournament where they were a permanent fixture the few years prior. Bruce Weber reorganized things with tremendous sophomore seasons from Mike Tisdale, Mike Davis and Demetri McCamey.
2010 Outlook: Good.

Indiana
2008 Record: 25-8
2009 Record: 6-25
Synopsis: Polar opposites for the Hoosiers this season compared to 2008, but it wasn't anything that wasn't expected. Everybody expected Indiana to undergo a total facelift and that's what happened. Nearly every player left off that 2008 season and first-year head coach Tom Crean was essentially dealing with very little talent. And I don't think there's any doubt that Indiana will be back before long.
2010 Outlook: Promising.

Iowa
2008 Record: 13-19
2009 Record: 15-17
Synopsis: The Hawkeyes continue to take little steps towards improving under second year head coach Todd Lickliter. Though the departure of four players stings a bit, Lickliter will finally have a roster full of "his players" in 2010, and expectations should be higher.
2010 Outlook: Slow but steady.

Michigan
2008 Record: 10-22
2009 Record: 21-14
Synopsis: Michigan rode the Manny Harris-DeShawn Sims connection to their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 1998 and won their first game before eventually falling in the second round to Oklahoma. They don't really lose much, but if Harris and Sims stick around, a repeat in 2010 is very possible.
2010 Outlook: Good.

Michigan State
2008 Record: 27-9
2009 Record: 31-7
Synopsis: Michigan State made it all the way to March's biggest stage despite losing in the title game to North Carolina. They've established themselves as the cream of the crop in the Big Ten and that doesn't figure to change as long as Tom Izzo is at the helm.
2010 Outlook: Great.

Minnesota
2008 Record: 20-14
2009 Record: 22-11
Synopsis: Tubby Smith has things rolling in Minneapolis. In his first two years, he's won at least 20 games but is still finding players to fit his system. He may have some answers coming in next fall with McDonald's All American forward Royce White of Hopkins, MN, coming in. Very high ceiling for the Golden Gophers in 2010.
2010 Outlook: Great.

Northwestern
2008 Record: 8-22
2009 Record: 17-14
Synopsis: Like the other state school in the Big Ten (Illinois), Northwestern bounced back in 2009 to have a pretty solid season. They beat Michigan State on the road (remember that?) and showed that they've got some decent talent waiting in the wings. Northwestern has never been to an NCAA Tournament and has been just average in the Bill Carmody era. Don't expect that to change.
2010 Outlook: Average.

Ohio State
2008 Record: 24-13
2009 Record: 22-11
Synopsis: You know Thad Matta has won more than 20 games in every season as a head coach? That's a dominating statistic and throw in his tireless recruiting habits, Ohio State has it made for the next couple of years. Evan Turner exploded onto the national scene this year and will toss and turn about going pro, as will guard William Buford and big B.J. Mullens. The Buckeyes don't have any major losses, but if those three return, Ohio State can be a special team. Don't forget guard David Lighty, who got a medical redshirt this year after breaking his foot early.
2010 Outlook: Excellent.

Penn State
2008 Record: 15-16
2009 Record: 27-11
Synopsis: No team improved more in a span of one season than Penn State did and they topped it off with an NIT Championship last week in Madison Square Garden. Whether Penn State keeps this form next year is another question after losses of Jamelle Cornley, Stanley Pringle and Danny Morrisey to graduation.
2010 Outlook: Unknown.

Purdue
2008 Record: 25-9
2009 Record: 27-10
Synopsis: Purdue is another one of those teams that is proving that they belong at the top. They've made three straight NCAA Tournaments and won the Big Ten Tournament last month. They essentially don't lose anyone either, as their top six scorers are slated to return. There have been whispers around West Lafayette, though, that E'Twaun Moore is thinking of playing overseas, but JaJaun Johnson has assured Boilermaker fans he will return after a breakout season this year.
2010 Outlook: Great.

Wisconsin
2008 Record: 31-5
2009 Record: 20-13
Synopsis: Nobody does more with less than Bo Ryan. Every year, you think Wisconsin might regress and fall into mediocrity, but every year they surprise. He gets exactly what he wants out of his players and they execute better than any team in the conference. I'm done doubting his coaching. However, they lose Joe Krabbenhoft and Marcus Landry, but they've got capable bigs waiting in the wings.
2010 Outlook: Average.

NOTES
- The Big Ten, as a conference, won 18 more games this year than last. They also had the second-best RPI in the country.
- Seven teams qualified for the NCAA Tournament, tied for most in college basketball from one conference.
- Penn State won the NIT, marking the second year in a row a Big Ten team as won the event (Ohio State won last year).
- The first team all-Big Ten were all sophomores (Talor Battle, Evan Turner, Manny Harris, Kalin Lucas, JaJuan Johnson).
- Michigan State made the Final Four for the fifth time this decade and beat the Big East's two best teams (Connecticut, Louisville).
- The Big Ten went 9-7 in the NCAA Tournament.
- Four of the conference's coaches are either in their first (Tom Crean) or second year (John Beilein, Todd Lickliter, Tubby Smith) with their respective programs.

Still not convinced?

Sour Note Despite Strong Season

That's it, college basketball fans. Another March Madness is in the books. And for the fourth time this decade, a Big Ten team has fallen short of a national championship. Not a stat you'd like to hang your hat on, but as a conference, the Big Ten did more for its national image this year than any other, proving that it is one of the deepest and most competitive conferences in America.

It's flagship program, Michigan State, rode March momentum all the way tonight's championship, and while they did not play up to par, they proved they still the conference's cash crop. Along the way, they defeated 2009 Pac-10 Tournament champion USC, defeated defending national champion Kansas twice (once during the regular season) and quieted the Big East's two best teams in Louisville and Connecticut.

If my count is correct, the Big Ten went 9-7 (5-1 from Michigan State) this March, which I bet nobody expected them to do at the beginning of the year. They got seven teams into the Big Dance, as many as the Big East and more than the ACC. And Penn State gave the conference some hardware, winning the NIT last Thursday after defeating Baylor.

Despite what media experts think, the Big Ten reinvented itself this season with an influx of young players and new coaches. I don't think anybody expected them to be this good so quickly and nobody gave them credit. Yet, even tonight, even after being beaten up early by the Tar Heels, Michigan State didn't back down, a sign of what is to come next year and beyond for this conference.

In the next couple of days, I'll generate a more thorough conference wrap-up and gaze into the crystal ball for next year's Big Ten season. It was a great season, Big Ten, college hoops fans and the best is yet to come.

MSU Gets Second Shot At Tar Heels

Tomorrow night, Michigan State gets their second chance at North Carolina with everything on the line. Earlier this season, as you may remember, the Tar Heels embarrassed Michigan State on the same floor by 35 points.

The Spartans haven't forgotten.

Both teams are clicking on all cylinders. Both teams are deep. Both are experienced. And both have head coaches who have been in this situation before. All that should make for a very compelling national championship game.

Raymar Morgan finally busted through his seemingly year-long slump with a terrific game in their Final Four win versus Connecticut. Korie Lucious hit some big shots in the first half and Mr. Dependable, Kalin Lucas was able to do what he does best -- create, either for himself or for his teammates. It was a complete game by Michigan State, but what do they need to do this time around to avenge their early season loss? Here are three keys:

1. Push the ball. North Carolina will run up-tempo at times, too, but this is Michigan State's style. Lots of possessions, quicken the game and tire your opponent.

2. Go after Hansbrough...early. He didn't have the luxory of having to defend Suton in their first match-up, but I would take the ball out of his hands, double him and force someone else to beat you. UNC has a lot of weapons, but attempting to neutralize their best may go along way. Attack him on the offensive end, too. Getting him in foul trouble early would be huge.

3. Use the crowd. 3/4ths of that arena tomorrow will be wearing green. The whole state is at your backs. Use the momentum to rattle the Tar Heels.

Other news:
-- ESPN's Mark Schlabach spoke with Big Ten commisioner Jim Delaney, who defended the conference with some decent arguing points. Notice the words: "east-coast bias".

-- Nothing helps recruit better than winning. Case in point? Penn State's recent commitment of Taran Buie, a Top 100 player for the 2010 recruiting class. Oh yeah, he's Talor Battle's younger brother.

Note

Sorry for lack of updates this week, guys. I've been bombarded with school work and work-related events. We're hosting the NCAA North Central regional for women's gymnastics tomorrow (Saturday) and I'm coordinating the media side of it.

It's been a long week but I'll get back to it Monday with Final Four reactions and a brief glimpse into the crystal ball for next year's basketball season.