Saturday, January 31, 2009

Saturday Update

I'll try to get this in before the first slate of match-ups today. I went 5-0 with my predictions in the mid-week and will try to keep the ball rolling. Here's what I noticed:

- Michigan State continues to impress following their relatively easy win over Iowa Thursday. Kalin Lucas is one of the most underrated point guards in the country and Durrell Summers had a career night. All of this without forward Raymar Morgan, who played only eight minutes due to a viral infection.

- Gotta tip your hat to Minnesota following their sheer dominance over Illinois. They held Illinois, now a ranked team (#20), to just 36 points in 40 minutes of basketball. That's a great win for Tubby Smith's program.

- Devan Dumes can fill it up. SEE: First half against Northwestern (21 points). Not too many bright spots on the Hoosiers' squad, but Dumes, a guy who was playing junior-college ball just last year, seems to be Indiana's leader on the floor. They continue to play every opponent hard and WILL get somebody, somewhere.

Now let's take a look at the weekend's games:

SATURDAY
Michigan at Purdue, 12 p.m., CBS
This isn't a good time for Michigan to visit Purdue and they have to try and stop a Boilermaker team that is simply on a roll right now. They've won six straight conference games after starting 0-2 and remember, Robbie Hummel, the conf.'s pre-season POY, isn't 100% (back).
Prediction: Purdue. I think Michigan provides a good match-up for Purdue, but the Boilers are at home and are hot. Michigan can stay in the game if their shooters connect on their 3's (looking at you, Zack Novak, Laval Lucas-Perry).

Ohio State at Indiana, 3 p.m., ESPN2
We all know Indiana's story. They are winless in conference, but they continue to play extremely hard and extremely hungry. Ohio State got a big win Tuesday against Michigan and will look to keep that going in Bloomington. Thad Matta has gotten 20 wins in every season as a head coach (they've got 14 so far this year). There were also rumors swirling around that junior captain David Lighty could be done for the season after undergoing more x-rays on his injured foot yesterday, which would be a huge blow for Ohio State, especially if they were to make it to the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Ohio State. I keep saying Indiana will get somebody, but I can't see it being the Buckeyes. Indiana really doesn't have a good defensive match-up for 7-footer B.J. Mullens, who is playing much better in conference play. Ohio State had little trouble with Indiana in their match-up in Columbus three weeks ago, winning 77-53.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Wisconsin at Northwestern, 7 p.m., BTN
This could be one of those low-scoring, drag-it-out kind of games. Wisconsin badly needs a win to stay in the hunt for another NCAA Tournament bid, but Northwestern is showing they are no pushover anymore. Will Wisconsin show up with a fire?
Prediction: Northwestern. The Wildcats continue to show that they are a legitimate threat for any team that comes into Welsh-Ryan Arena (and even on the road, too. Right Michigan State?). I think the first ten minutes of the game are crucial to Wisconsin. If they are winning or within striking distance, it will go down to the wire. But if they find themselves down big to start, it will be six losses in a row for the Badgers. Also, I'm sure Northwestern hasn't forgotten the 29-point drubbing they took in Madison Jan. 7.

SUNDAY
Penn State at Michigan State, 11 a.m., BTN
Penn State has had a week off to prepare for the Spartans, while Michigan State has won two straight (both on the road). This game features a showdown of the two best point guards in the conference, PSU's Talor Battle and the aforementioned Kalin Lucas.
Prediction: Michigan State. It's hard to beat the Spartans in East Lansing, though Northwestern found a way to do that. Michigan State has too many weapons for Penn State to handle and their big trees down low, Delvon Roe and Goran Suton are simply better players than Penn State's low-post guys. Penn State's Jamelle Cornely plays with a fire that I haven't seen in a player in a long time. He wills his team to victory with his energy and relentless play, but I don't see that happening Sunday.

Iowa at Illinois, 1 p.m., BTN
Iowa continues to stagger, especially on the road, where they have just one road win this season (at The Citadel). Illinois is coming off of a real bad loss at Minnesota, but returning home for Illinois should be a positive sign.
Prediction: Illinois. The depth and versatility for the Fighting Illini will be too much for Iowa to handle. Iowa can't get Cyrus Tate back soon enough, but if he sits this game out as expected, Illinois will have their way inside with Mike Tisdale and Mike Davis.

That's it, everybody. Enjoy this weekend and the Super Bowl. I'm picking the Steelers, FYI. That doesn't count towards my prediction record, though!

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Mid-Season Thoughts

With the conference slate nearing its midway point, I thought I would give out some hardware to those deserving individuals:



Biggest Surprise

Illinois. After their lack-luster season one year ago, who at the beginning of the year thought Illinois would be contending for a Big Ten title? The play of Demetri McCamey and the vast improvement of big men Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale has been the primary reason Illinois has been so succesful so far this season.



Biggest Dud

Wisconsin. After losing five in a row, the Badgers are in uncharted territory. They haven't had a streak like that since 2002, but they've got all sorts of problems this year. They are still playing prototypical Wisconsin defense, but they aren't getting much production out of their guards and are having trouble putting the ball in the basket.



Best Game

Michigan at Indiana, Jan. 7. Michigan looked completely out-of-sync against Indiana in Bloomington, down by as many as 20 points in the second half. But the Wolverines rallied behind some inspired play from guards Manny Harris and Laval Lucas-Perry to shock the Hoosiers in overtime, 72-66. Michigan shot 40 (that's right, 40!) three-pointers (hit 12) and still won.



Best Play

There are a few that are worth merit here, but I'm going with Wisconsin's Jordan Taylor draining a 35-foot three-pointer as time expires to tie the game against Iowa on Jan. 21. Wisconsin would go on to lose this game in OT, but Taylor's shot certainly gave the Badgers a shot in the arm and silenced the crowd at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, albeit temporarily.



Best Player

Pick-em between PSU's Talor Battle & MICH's Manny Harris. Both guys are equally as deserving of this title. Let's take a quick look at the numbers, as they are nearly identical, and let you decide:



Harris: 17.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 4.6 apg, 87% FT % (Team Record: 14-6; last year: 10-22)

Battle: 18.5 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 5.4 apg, 40% 3-Pt % (Team Record: 16-5; last year: 15-16)

Best Coaching Job
John Beilein, MICH. Michigan already has four more wins this year than last and are playing the way Beilein wants them to. Manny Harris looks to be a future NBA player and the Wolverines to date are the only team to knock off (this week's) No. 1 team in the country, Duke. Also beat then-No. 4 UCLA.


Best Defensive Player
Damian Johnson, MINN. The trendy pick here might be to pick between Purdue's Chris Kramer and Johnson's teammate, Al Nolen, but Johnson gets over two blocks and two steals each game. And with his 6'8" frame, he's a defensive nightmare for opponents.


Best Sixth Man

John Leuer, WIS. Off the bench, the 6'10" forward is averaging 9.4 ppg and 4.3 rpg. Only a sophomore, Leuer looks like he is a bright spot for Bo Ryan's Badgers.



Which Teams Are NCAA Tournament-Bound?

Up to eight teams can make the NCAA Tournament, but I just don't see that happening. Right now, I'm putting down Michigan State, Purdue, Illinois, Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State.



NIT?

Wisconsin, Ohio State



See You Next Year!

Northwestern, Iowa, Indiana



Who will win the conference?

Purdue. They are the most complete, most versatile team at this point, and they are hot. They still have to go to Ohio State (Feb. 3), Illinois (Feb. 8) and finish the season at Michigan State (March 8), which could decide the Big Ten crown.

Monday, January 26, 2009

MSU Makes A Statement; Ohio State, Wisconsin Struggling

Every Monday, I'll try to update this thing with a look back at the weekend's slate of games and a look ahead to the first batch of games this week. Expect a similar post Friday for the weekend slate.

First, here's a few thoughts on last weekend's outcomes:

A Look Back...
  • I really felt Michigan State made a statement win at Ohio State, on national television no less. Everybody knows the Spartans have talent, but Ohio State is no slouch, either, and to win in this conference on the road is tough. Kalin Lucas is one of the most underrated point guards in the country and powers their fast-paced offense. As he goes, Michigan State goes. Great win for Sparty.
  • On the flip side, Ohio State seems to be struggling a little bit. Looking ahead to March, they have some quality wins (at Miami, Notre Dame, Butler) but also have some head scratchers (see: West Virginia). They really miss the on-court presence of David Lighty, who continues to be out-of-action because of his foot injury, but the Buckeyes need to get some more wins to improve their chances of making the dance.
  • Speaking of struggling, what has happened to Wisconsin? Losing four games in a row hasn't happened in years for Bo Ryan and the Badgers need to regroup quickly. Trevon Hughes has been turnover prone lately, Jason Bohannon has not been hitting his shots and Joe Krabbenhoft can't stay out of foul trouble. The only bright spot for Wisky is the play of senior forward Marcus Landry, who continues to be near-automatic in the low post. The schedule doesn't get any easier for the Badgers; they host red-hot Purdue Tuesday night in Madison.
  • Is Penn State really this good? They are 16-5 on the season and pose perhaps the best inside-outside threat in the Big Ten in sophomore Talor Battle and senior Jamelle Cornley. They were on display in the Nittany Lions' colossal comeback against Iowa Saturday night, scoring at will against Iowa's defense. Down 14 with a little over four minutes left, coach Ed DeChellis had a simple game plan: get the ball down low to Cornley and let Battle fire away from long range. Needless to say, it worked. Cornley completely over-matched whoever was guarding him and played more like a fullback than a forward while Battle's mix of crossover and hesitation moves made Jeff Peterson look silly.

A Look Ahead...

Here are the games on the docket for the first half of the week:

TUESDAY:

Purdue at Wisconsin, 8 p.m., ESPN
Wisconsin really needs a win to snap their four-game slide. After starting the conference slate 0-2, Purdue has rattled off five straight wins. Matt Painter has the Boilers really playing well.
Prediction: Purdue. All you have to do is look at momentum. Yes, Wisconsin is tough to beat inside the Kohl Center, but one team is going forward while the other is stuck in reverse. Remember, they beat the Badgers in Mad-town last year. I'm going with Purdue.

WEDNESDAY:

Michigan at Ohio State, 5:30 p.m., BTN
This rivalry may not garner as much attention as if it were being played on the gridiron, but it's still Ohio State-Michigan. I think only one of these teams will make the Big Dance, so this game could be the difference maker in terms of who is dancing in March and who isn't. Ohio State won the first match-up in Ann Arbor.
Prediction: Ohio State. I can't see Ohio State losing to both Michigan State and Michigan in the same week, both at home. Give me Ohio State.

Indiana at Northwestern, 7:30 p.m., BTN
Northwestern's monstrous week last week (wins over ranked opponents Minnesota, Michigan State) gave them a lot of momentum and despite the road loss to Michigan, they cannot overlook Indiana. Though they still don't have a win in conference play, Tom Crean has the Hoosiers hungry and they will get somebody down the road.
Prediction: Northwestern. The Hoosiers don't have a good defensive answer for Kevin Coble. His height (6'8") and versatility provides a huge match-up problem for Indiana, plus I think Northwestern's slow-it-down, zone-laden defense will cause Indiana to beat themselves.

THURSDAY:

Michigan State at Iowa, 6 p.m., ESPN
This is a clash of styles. Michigan State runs an up-tempo game, trying to score as fast as possible nearly every time down the floor, whereas Iowa plays more in the half-court and slows the game down. Whoever can control game tempo will win this game, but don't count Iowa out, especially not at home. The Hawkeyes shocked Michigan State last year in Iowa City.
Prediction: Michigan State. The loss to Northwestern really seemed to light a fire under the Spartans, while the loss to Penn State might have mentally drained the Hawkeyes. Michigan State has too much talent and they won't take Iowa lightly like they may have done last year.

GAME OF THE WEEK: Illinois at Minnesota, 8 p.m., BTN
Outside of Penn State, Illinois has been the conference's biggest surprise. They enter their game at Minnesota ranked for the first time since the Dee Brown days, so it will be interesting to see how they fare on the road in a hostile environment like The Barn. Minnesota is also ranked, and they can go 11 or 12 deep.
Prediction: Minnesota. This one was a tough one to decide. On one hand, Illinois is playing very solid basketball right now. Their guard tandem of Demetri McCamey and Chester Frazier really handle the ball well, don't turn it over much and create offense for themselves and others. Plus, the play of the Mikes, Tisdale and Davis, has been a big surprise. Minnesota has struggled in recent outings at Northwestern and at Indiana, but they return home, a place they haven't been much the last two weeks. Like Illinois, Minnesota plays a balanced scheme, can go inside or out but as I said above, the edge they have is in their depth. I'm picking Minnesota in a slight upset, but I expect this game to be very competitive.

With the midway point of the conference season nearing, I'll hand out some awards later in the week.

Friday, January 23, 2009

The Inaugural

Welcome to my blog. If you want to read and discuss Big Ten basketball, then you've come to the right place.

You may be asking yourself, "What's the deal with the title?" Well, as some of you basketball aficionados may know, Jim Burr is a referee who regularly officiates Big Ten basketball (he's the one who looks like he should be in a retirement home rather than on a basketball court). While over winter break, Burr was officiating the Iowa v. Minnesota game inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Now, obviously the game can't be blamed on officiating because Iowa went over ten minutes without getting a field goal, but to keep the language PG, let me just say I didn't agree with the majority of his calls.

I called my dad after the game to gripe about Burr, and after a lengthy conversation, he got me to believe that if there is bad basketball being played, Jim Burr probably is working it. Thus, he provided me with the inspiration I needed for this blog. Don't get me wrong. This will be the only time you ever hear me complain about Burr. I've got no hard feelings towards the guy, and for the most part, he's an excellent referee... just as long as he doesn't call Iowa games!

First, I'll give you a little bit of background on myself. My name is Brad Rudner, and I'm a 22-year old senior at the University of Iowa. I'm from Schaumburg, IL, a suburb of Chicago with a population over 75,000. I'm a journalism and mass communucation and communication studies double-major and will graduate this summer (May/June '09). For the last two-plus years, I have interned inside the Iowa Sports Information Department, serving as the primary media contact for Iowa's women's soccer team and women's gymnastics team.

The Big Ten is in my blood. My dad, Mark, has worked at the Big Ten Conference for close to 30 years and currently serves as one of the associate commisioners. He graduated from Ohio State, my mom from Purdue and my younger brother is a freshman at Illinois. I've been to seven of the Big Ten's eleven campuses and have had the privilege of meeting some legendary Big Ten figures.

The purpose of this blog is to discuss all things related to Big Ten basketball. I'll make predictions on games at the beginning and end of each week and give my insight on the stories that are worth talking about. In March, I will be volunteering at the Big Ten Tournament in Indianapolis and hope to provide good coverage of this magnificent event. SIDE NOTE: This year's tournament is anybody's tournament to win, except Indiana. It could be the best one the Big Ten has seen in a decade, at least on paper, anyway.

So sit back, relax, and come back often. The season is at its midway point, but the best is still yet to come!