Do Or Die Time

Ok, so I didn't get off to the start I wanted to Tuesday with Michigan State. I really felt they would put up a better showing in West Lafayette than they did, and when you're record is 6-0 on the road, what's not to like? The Spartans are oozing with athleticism, but unlike other Tom Izzo squads, this team doesn't have a go-to guy. Raymar Morgan isn't the answer. Kalin Lucas could be, but he's still just a sophomore. They are deep, they are fast, but they need to play with more consistency if they are going to be a serious contender next month.

Purdue, on the other hand, is playing the kind of basketball we thought they would play all season. That 0-2 start to conference play (yeah, remember that?) doesn't look so bad anymore. I've really been impressed with JaJuan Johnson and his improvement. Like so many other bigs in the conference, Johnson has taken a step forward in his maturation process on the floor and is becoming a low-post force. This is the time when you want to hit your stride, and Matt Painter has the Boilermakers doing that.

Now, Wednesday was plain ugly. All you have to do is look at the box score of the Illinois-Penn State game to find that out. Both teams couldn't shoot, couldn't defend, but somehow, Penn State managed to eek out a win in Assembly Hall, where they have won three straight rather quietly. Two of their three wins against ranked opponents are on the road (Illinois, Michigan State). Illinois, meanwhile, had some sort of mental lapse Wednesday. They should be able to beat Penn State on your home floor, especially considering the size/skill differencial in the post. I was just about to say, too, that Illinois could be a dangerous team in the NCAA Tournament. Now, I'm not so sure.

And Thad Matta has got to be steamed after losing to Northwestern. All I had to do was look at his face after Craig Moore split four defenders and throw up a back-to-the-basket prayer lay-up that went in to find that out. It made Sportscenters' Top 10 plays for Wednesday, by the way (#5). That's a small detour for Ohio State, but I still think they've got what it takes to get in.

Good wins for Wisconsin and Michigan, who keep their tournament hopes alive. I'll produce something next week about Who's In and Who's Out, so be on the look out for that. Real quickly, here are my picks for this weekend:

Saturday
Indiana at Purdue (1 p.m., BTN) -- This is the only meeting of the season between the two, and it comes irregularly in late February. Purdue should handle their rivals to the south.

Sunday
Illinois at Ohio State (12 p.m., CBS) -- Both these teams should play with a little fire after their losses Wednesday. I expect to see Ohio State take it at home and bolster their resume.
Wisconsin at Michigan State (2 p.m., ESPN) -- Michigan State has been surprisingly vulnerable at home this season. This is a "contrast in styles" kind of game. Can Wisconsin's air-tight defense keep their red-hot streak alive against a fast Michigan State team? I don't think so.
Michigan at Iowa (4 p.m., BTN) -- Michigan got a much-needed win Thursday against Minnesota and travel to visit an Iowa team that is plagued with injuries. Cyrus Tate and Jeff Peterson are doubtful to play, but the Hawkeyes will be looking to avenge a big loss in Ann Arbor earlier this year. Michigan can't slip up here; if they do, their bubble might be burst.
Northwestern at Minnesota (6 p.m., BTN) -- If the tournament started today, I think Minnesota would be in, but another win couldn't hurt. This should be an interesting one, but I'm going with Minnesota, who hasn't lost much at home this season.

Record: 30-7